UC scientist participates in landmark international study estimating a 5-year increase in life expectancy by 2050

Average life expectancy will increase by 4.9 years by 2050, according to a study published in the prestigious journal The Lancet. The paper, co-authored by a researcher from the University of Coimbra (UC), analysed data from 204 countries, including Portugal.

The scientific article, entitled "Burden of Disease Scenarios for 204 Countries and Territories, 2022-2050: A Forecasting Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021", involved Mónica Rodrigues, a researcher at the UC Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning (CEGOT).

The expert explains that, in a national context, "the study shows that life expectancy at birth for women will rise from 84.8 years in 2022 to 87.4 years in 2050". "For men, it will increase from 79.1 years (2022 data) to 82.5 years in 2050," he adds.

"This global trend of increasing life expectancy is due to the implementation of more and better public health policies, which have helped to improve the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of several diseases, such as cardiovascular, neonatal and nutritional conditions," the UC researcher points out.

The study also highlights the impact on future generations of non-communicable diseases such as cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and their risk factors such as overweight, smoking and obesity.

In this context, the same research team also published a study on the major health risk factors in The Lancet: the article 'Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021', co-authored by scientist Mónica Rodrigues, is available at www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00933-4.

Mónica Rodrigues explains: "In this study, we found that between 2000 and 2021, there was a 49.4% increase in the number of people with health problems and premature death caused by risk factors such as excessive sugar consumption, high blood pressure, high LDL cholesterol or high body mass index".

"We have huge opportunities ahead of us to change and influence the future of global health by preventing metabolic and dietary risk factors, especially those related to behavior and lifestyle, such as the overconsumption of sugar and fat," Rodrigues says.

The scientific paper is available here.

_{Translation: Diana Taborda}