Translation by Diana Taborda
A new method for analysing mathematical models could help in the early detection and prediction of cancer and pandemics, according to an international study published in the Nature journal Scientific Reports.
The study, led by Paulo Rocha of the Faculty of Science and Technology of the University of Coimbra (FCTUC) and Lode Vandamme of the University of Eindhoven (Netherlands), provides the scientific community working with this type of mathematical model with a new reading format, more precisely on a logarithmic and linear scale, called "log-lin".
"We studied the mathematical model most commonly used by the scientific community, a model proposed by Verhulst, and found that if we interpret the data in this way (" log-lin ") and not in traditional formats, we can obtain information that allows early detection not only of pandemic peaks, but also of the development of several types of cancer, albeit on very different time scales", explains Paulo Rocha.
According to the FCTUC scientist, "this scientific article suggests that the scientific community working with this type of model should start using this analysis format". In view of the pandemic situation we are currently experiencing, this study may allow us to "better predict when pandemic peaks will occur", he stresses.
According to the researcher, "cancer and pandemics are two of the world's leading causes of death and are currently a major global concern. For both scenarios, early detection and prediction are critical. Our work shows that similar mathematical and physical models can be used to solve similar problems in pandemics and cancer and provide timely warnings. He goes on to say that these models "can provide early warning of epidemiological peaks - currently crucial for predicting the second and third peaks of COVID-19 - as well as summarising vital data for government agencies and citizens".
Another important fact of the study is that the analytical model proposed by this group of scientists shows that "Brownian motion explains the rules of behaviour in a pandemic and highlights the importance of confinement, social distance, masks, face shields and air conditioning".
The full paper - “Similarities between pandemics and cancer in growth and risk model”, is available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79458-w.